Survey questions on dating
The NBER business-cycle chronology considers economic activity, which grows along an upward trend.
As a result, the unemployment rate often rises before the peak of economic activity, when activity is still rising but below its normal trend rate of increase.
The peak date at the end of 2007 coincided with the peak in employment.
We designated June 2009 as the trough, six months before the trough in employment, which is consistent with earlier trough dates in the NBER business-cycle chronology.
For example, the unemployment rate reached its lowest level prior to the December 2007 peak of activity in May 2007 at 4.4 percent and climbed to 5.0 percent by December 2007.In the 2001 recession, we found a clear signal in employment and a mixed one in the various measures of output.Consequently, we picked the peak month based on the clear signal in employment, as well as our consideration of output and other measures.For example, in the recovery beginning in March 1991, the unemployment rate continued to rise for 15 months after the trough. In the current recovery, the lag was only 4 months, from the trough in activity in June 2009 to the highest level of the unemployment rate in October 2009.Q: What data from the National Income and Product Accounts are used in the calculation of real personal income less transfers? Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, prepares estimates of monthly real GDP.